ok so exactly how common is this tiger mini? - Page 4 - Guild Wars Forums

JimmyNeutron · Feb 16, 2010, 04:57 PM // 16:57

Another 2,000 lunar fortunes and I got 2. Great chances!!!

Arduin · Feb 16, 2010, 04:59 PM // 16:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caw521

What if you just d/c'ed right before you got the chance to pick them up?

Reconnect?

Neo Atomisk · Feb 16, 2010, 05:01 PM // 17:01

I'm pretty sure the chance of obtaining one from a lunar fortune is .33%, but I could be wrong.

iarepokey · Feb 16, 2010, 05:18 PM // 17:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Risus

0.33% is complete bull crap. Stats are all bull crap in this game. So is the "farm code" and every other anti farming measure they have implemented. ANet hasn't confirmed any and I've actually proven they don't exist via tests. They are all sitting in Seattle laughing their heads off at the idiodic conspiracy theories that everyone believes.

There is no reason, if you get 1 in 1, thats 100% chance, if you get 2 in 10, its 20%, unless you open up for me an infinite amount of Lunar Fortunes, don't tell me the drop rate. Also, accountability is an issue. I can say I got 20 tigers in 30 fortunes but thats complete bull crap because I've gotten 0 out of 2 stacks. Its luck. You get one, or you don't. No "you have a .33% chance of getting one."

And to all the people QQ'ing that they opened enough to where they should be guranteed one, its not remembering every fortune. Think of a big Wheel of Fortune wheel, with the tiger being the tiniest fleck on that. The wheel spins every time you open a fortune. You don't take part of the wheel off.

You are obviously disturbed that you didn't get a single mini after two stacks of fortunes. Sorry to hear that.

In my case, I opened about 301 Fortunes and received 6 Celestial Tigers. In terms of statistics and percentage, that makes my drop rate close to .33% so it's about right. On the other hand, in my entire Alliance, I was the one who got the most luck since the other person to get more Tigers besides me got 4 out of 438 fortunes. Another person received NONE after opening 746 (close to three stack).

As for sell value, I sold 5 of my Celestial Tigers:
2 for 50k each
1 for 85k
1 for 7ecto + 4k
1 for 40k (to a Guildie)

Do your own match based on this information.

EDIT: Typo. Changed the 33% to .33%

Dzjudz · Feb 16, 2010, 05:41 PM // 17:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by iarepokey

In my case, I opened about 301 Fortunes and received 6 Celestial Tigers. In terms of statistics and percentage, that makes my drop rate close to 33% so it's about right.

Sorry what? 6 out of 300 is 2%.

Trinity Fire Angel · Feb 16, 2010, 06:45 PM // 18:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dzjudz

Sorry what? 6 out of 300 is 2%.

and one 1 of 350 = 0.29% .... wow.. what are the chances?

i got my tiger after only opening 50. but that doesn;t make it a 2% chance if i stopped at 50 fortunes and sold the rest. statistics are statistics. i am about to add up all the numbers of fortunes and tigers out this whole thread and see what we get... i am only using numbers where people gave the total amount they used and not where people are saying they got one within the first 20. as it doesn;t tell us exactly how many they opened after that.

Tigers / Fortunes
----------------
4 - 300
0 - 2680
5 - 673
2 - 104
0 - 2250
1 - 250
2 - 250
4 - 450
2 - 73
1 - 125
2 - 185
3 - 900
0 - 200
1 - 200
1 - 52
1 - 350
1 - 50
1 - 250
3 - 100
5 - 750
3 - 846
2 - 550
0 - 1000
1 - 45
2 - 70
1 - 392
0 - 225
2 - 540
1 - 14
2 - 250
2 - 151
1 - 320
3 - 250
1 - 450
2 - 2000
6 - 301
4 - 438
0 - 746
------------
72 / 18780 * 100
-------------------
= 0.38339 %

Even with all the bullshit numbers that people may have made up and all the *about this many fortunes were opened*... works out pretty close to the 0.33% drop rate.

Just4Fun · Feb 16, 2010, 06:57 PM // 18:57

I have a guildie who opened 400 fortunes and got 14 tigers.

Dzjudz · Feb 16, 2010, 07:28 PM // 19:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trinity Fire Angel

and one 1 of 350 = 0.29% .... wow.. what are the chances?

I was responding to his quote saying that 6 out of 301 is close to 33%...

Commander Kanen · Feb 16, 2010, 07:34 PM // 19:34

i opend just over 600 fortunes (maybe 620 ish) and i had 7 tigers.

Sold bout 45k ea

Mcsnake85 · Feb 16, 2010, 08:00 PM // 20:00

Quote:

0 - 2250

IMO this is a big bullshit....impossible get 0 tiger in over 2000 L.F.
0-1000 is a bullshit too..always IMO..

Dzjudz · Feb 16, 2010, 08:17 PM // 20:17

Well if the chance really is 1/3% then you have a 99.95% chance of getting at least one tiger out of 2250 fortunes. You could be very unlucky

. Getting at least one out of a 1000 fortunes is 96.45%. Some people are just very unlucky.

Kaleban · Feb 16, 2010, 09:02 PM // 21:02

Well I think the drop rate was BS. I opened some 700 fortunes across three different characters, and not one mini.

iarepokey · Feb 16, 2010, 11:25 PM // 23:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dzjudz

Sorry what? 6 out of 300 is 2%.

Sorry, it was a typo. I meant .33% but I was obviously off either way. You're right, that makes it about 2%

Horsetears · Feb 16, 2010, 11:35 PM // 23:35

Aw, if anyone has a Tiger they don't want I'll take, I don't want one to sell it =( I just wanted one, totally missed Sunday, so I didn't get a chance for more tokens, what a bummer.

Lilo of Death

JimmyNeutron · Feb 17, 2010, 03:27 AM // 03:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Horsetears

Aw, if anyone has a Tiger they don't want I'll take, I don't want one to sell it =( I just wanted one, totally missed Sunday, so I didn't get a chance for more tokens, what a bummer.

Lilo of Death

Ditto...but for the mini Celestial Pig, UNDED only please

PM me on Guru if you can help donate a cel pig unded to me.

Tax season is heer.

madriel222 · Feb 17, 2010, 03:35 AM // 03:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mcsnake85

IMO this is a big bullshit....impossible get 0 tiger in over 2000 L.F.
0-1000 is a bullshit too..always IMO..

I would have thought that too, if I wasn't the one blowing all those stacks of fortunes.

HuntMaster Avatar · Feb 17, 2010, 03:43 AM // 03:43

I wasn't able to get onto guildwars until 11:15 pst sunday, so I didn't get a chance at a tiger. No big deal, just another thing to add to the shopping list.
Which I can't understand. I barely play anymore, but I still like to hop on, farm some gold and buy mini's that only ever sit on an unused character.

If I sold my mini collection, I could outfit all my characters with fow armor and still have money left to buy other crap. Ah, addiction, my good friend.

rb.widow · Feb 17, 2010, 12:25 PM // 12:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimmyNeutron

2,680 Lunar Fortunes and ZERO (0) Celestial Tiger

I hear that, i opened loads of these things and got nothing, i think for the last near 5 years my account has been set to " get no good drops " from Anet, cause everytime im out i see everyone else getting them and i get squat,

The first Lunar Fortune my g/f opened was a tiger, she got 2 tigers in the first 15 fortunes she opened.......think im a get her to farm DoA/UW LOL.

Tullzinski · Feb 17, 2010, 02:02 PM // 14:02

1041 fortunes - 9 tigers.

My experience has been to never open more than 50 fortunes on a single character. If a toon has not hit a tiger by 50 fortunes I switch all the fortunes to the next character.

Usually the tiger would show up in the first 20 fortunes if it was going to happen, but have had a few closer to 50. Typically open fortunes in the Linnok Courtyard, unless char does not have it on the map.

I may be crazy but this method works for me. Also did well with the Ox last year 6 minis from around 800 fortunes (if I remember correctly). Stuck with a toon last year and burned through 250 fortunes in nothing flat with no minis. That is when I started rotating through my characters.

As a side note certain characters NEVER got a mini after multiple passes, not sure why this is, kinda strange.

Feb 16, 2010, 04:57 PM // 16:57	#61
JimmyNeutron Krytan Explorer Join Date: Sep 2007	Another 2,000 lunar fortunes and I got 2. Great chances!!!

Feb 16, 2010, 05:01 PM // 17:01	#63
Neo Atomisk Krytan Explorer Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: State College, Pennsylvania, United States Guild: Zealots of Shiverpeak [ZoS] Profession: W/	I'm pretty sure the chance of obtaining one from a lunar fortune is .33%, but I could be wrong.

Feb 16, 2010, 06:57 PM // 18:57	#67
Just4Fun Academy Page Join Date: Oct 2007	I have a guildie who opened 400 fortunes and got 14 tigers.

Feb 16, 2010, 07:34 PM // 19:34	#69
Commander Kanen Lion's Arch Merchant Join Date: Mar 2008 Guild: [DVDF] Profession: P/	i opend just over 600 fortunes (maybe 620 ish) and i had 7 tigers. Sold bout 45k ea

Feb 16, 2010, 08:17 PM // 20:17	#71
Dzjudz Furnace Stoker Join Date: Jun 2005 Guild: gwpvx.com/user:dzjudz	Well if the chance really is 1/3% then you have a 99.95% chance of getting at least one tiger out of 2250 fortunes. You could be very unlucky . Getting at least one out of a 1000 fortunes is 96.45%. Some people are just very unlucky.

Feb 16, 2010, 09:02 PM // 21:02	#72
Kaleban Jungle Guide Join Date: May 2005 Location: Hot as hell Florida Guild: [Wckd] Profession: Me/	Well I think the drop rate was BS. I opened some 700 fortunes across three different characters, and not one mini.

Feb 16, 2010, 11:35 PM // 23:35	#74
Horsetears Ascalonian Squire Join Date: Apr 2007 Guild: I Play Runescape [Mokk] Profession: N/Mo	Aw, if anyone has a Tiger they don't want I'll take, I don't want one to sell it =( I just wanted one, totally missed Sunday, so I didn't get a chance for more tokens, what a bummer. Lilo of Death

Feb 17, 2010, 03:43 AM // 03:43	#77
HuntMaster Avatar Wilds Pathfinder Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Around Guild: Pillar's of Earth [ROCK] Profession: W/	I wasn't able to get onto guildwars until 11:15 pst sunday, so I didn't get a chance at a tiger. No big deal, just another thing to add to the shopping list. Which I can't understand. I barely play anymore, but I still like to hop on, farm some gold and buy mini's that only ever sit on an unused character. If I sold my mini collection, I could outfit all my characters with fow armor and still have money left to buy other crap. Ah, addiction, my good friend.

Feb 17, 2010, 02:02 PM // 14:02	#79
Tullzinski Jungle Guide Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Trying to stay out of Ryuk's Death Note Profession: N/R	1041 fortunes - 9 tigers. My experience has been to never open more than 50 fortunes on a single character. If a toon has not hit a tiger by 50 fortunes I switch all the fortunes to the next character. Usually the tiger would show up in the first 20 fortunes if it was going to happen, but have had a few closer to 50. Typically open fortunes in the Linnok Courtyard, unless char does not have it on the map. I may be crazy but this method works for me. Also did well with the Ox last year 6 minis from around 800 fortunes (if I remember correctly). Stuck with a toon last year and burned through 250 fortunes in nothing flat with no minis. That is when I started rotating through my characters. As a side note certain characters NEVER got a mini after multiple passes, not sure why this is, kinda strange.